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François Marmier

Maître-Assistant HDR
Enseignant-Chercheur
Présent : OUI
05 63 49 33 12
Bureau 0A08
Mots-clés : 
Gestion de projets | Maîtrise des risques
Axes : 
  • Axe 1 : ORKID

Publications significatives

  • Strategic decision-making in NPD projects according to risk: Application to satellites design projects

    Références :
    François Marmier, Ioana Filipas Deniaud et Didier Gourc. « Strategic decision-making in NPD projects according to risk: Application to satellites design projects ». In : Computers in Industry 65.8 (oct. 2014). P. 1107--1114. DOI : 10.1016/j.compind.2014.06.001.
    In this paper we present a method for making strategic decisions in New Product Development (NPD) projects based on risks. In NPD the complexity of the process depends both on the nature of the design problem and the difficulties associated with managing the project (activities, risks). To design a complex product several different teams, having different competencies, work on the project. Not one among them controls the entire process. The interactions between product subsystems in NPD often lead to technological arbitration between alternative solutions. In selecting one solution over another, the risk management concerns and the overall project plan are affected. Therefore, the objective is to give the project Manager the means to evaluate the effects of strategic decisions, including those that influence the selection of technological solutions for the project plan as well as those for risk treatment strategies. We propose an integrated process that comprises design, project management and risk management. It takes into consideration the design activities and risk activities to generate a design project planning where design activities and risk activities are folded into the overall design project plan. During the process of project design two different types of strategies are required: one relates to the problem design, the other to the assessment of project risks. Each strategy leads to different possible scenarios. We present a decision tree that shows the decision steps and possible project scenarios. A generic decision support system is proposed. We demonstrate its applicability by applying it to a satellite design project. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Keywords: Complex product, Design project, Project planning, Risk management, Systems engineering
  • A risk oriented model to assess strategic decisions in new product development projects

    Références :
    François Marmier, Didier Gourc et Frédéric Laarz. « A risk oriented model to assess strategic decisions in new product development projects ». In : Decision Support Systems 56 (déc. 2013). P. 74--82. ISSN : 0167-9236. DOI : 10.1016/j.dss.2013.05.002.
    The project management team has to respect contractual commitments: in terms of deadlines and budgets, that are often two antagonistic objectives. At the same time, the market becomes more and more demanding as far as costs and delays are concerned while expecting a high quality level. Then, the project management team has to continuously consider novelty and a risk management strategy in order to determine the best balance between benefits and risks. Based on the principles of a synchronized process between risk management and project management, and on the concepts of risk scenario, we propose a decision-making tool to help the project manager choose the best way to improve project success rate while controlling the level of risks. As a finding, the project manager would be able to evaluate and compare different novelties or development strategies taking into account their repercussions on potential risks and risk treatment strategies. Finally, a case study in the aerospace industry and specifically on satellite integration and tests is developed to validate this approach. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Keywords: Decision support system, management, Project planning, Project variant, Risk management, Scenarios, Treatment strategy
  • A decision-making tool to maximize chances of meeting project commitments

    Références :
    Trong-Hung Nguyen, François Marmier et Didier Gourc. « A decision-making tool to maximize chances of meeting project commitments ». In : International Journal of Production Economics 142.2 (avr. 2013). P. 214--224. ISSN : 0925-5273. DOI : 10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.11.023.
    The project management team has to respect contractual commitments, in terms of deadlines and budgets, that are often two antagonistic functions. Then, during the invitation to tender phase or when faced with a risk situation, it has to determine its risk management strategy. Based on the principles of a synchronized process between risk management and project management, we propose a decision-making tool to help the project manager choose the best risk treatment strategy. The methodology developed, called ProRisk, uses the concepts of risk scenario, treatment scenario and project scenario to determine the consequences of possible risks combined or not with preventive and/or corrective treatment actions. As a finding, the project manager is also able to indicate to the sales department if the financial and deadline conditions are sufficiently profitable with regard to the risks. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Keywords: Decision support, Project planning, Risk management, Scenarios, Treatment strategy
  • Scheduling rules to minimize total tardiness in a parallel machine problem with setup and calendar constraints

    Références :
    Jacques Lamothe, François Marmier, Matthieu Dupuy, Paul Gaborit et Lionel Dupont. « Scheduling rules to minimize total tardiness in a parallel machine problem with setup and calendar constraints ». In : Computers & Operations Research 39.6 (juin 2012). P. 1236--1244. ISSN : 0305-0548. DOI : 10.1016/j.cor.2010.07.007.
    Quality control lead times are one of most significant causes of loss of time in the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries. This is partly due to the organization of laboratories that feature parallel multipurpose machines for chromatographic analyses. The testing process requires long setup times and operators are needed to launch the process. The various controls are non-preemptive and are characterized by a release date, a due date and available routings. These quality processes lead to significant delays, and we therefore evaluate the total tardiness criterion. Previous heuristics were defined for the total tardiness criterion, parallel machines, and setup such as apparent tardiness cost (ATC) and ATC with setups (ATCS). We propose new rules and a simulated annealing procedure in order to minimize total tardiness. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Keywords: algorithms, costs, Heuristics, jobs, Parallel machine, Scheduling, sequence, Simulated annealing, times, total weighted tardiness
  • A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements

    Références :
    Naoufel Cheikhrouhou, François Marmier, Omar Ayadi et Philippe Wieser. « A collaborative demand forecasting process with event-based fuzzy judgements ». In : Computers & Industrial Engineering 61.2 (sept. 2011). P. 409--421. ISSN : 0360-8352. DOI : 10.1016/j.cie.2011.07.002.
    Mathematical forecasting approaches can lead to reliable demand forecast in some environments by extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in historical data can reduce the usefulness of mathematical forecasts for demand planning purposes. Since forecasters have partial knowledge of the context and of future events, grouping and structuring the fragmented implicit knowledge, in order to be easily and fully integrated in final demand forecasts is the objective of this work. This paper presents a judgemental collaborative approach for demand forecasting in which the mathematical forecasts, considered as the basis, are adjusted by the structured and combined knowledge from different forecasters. The approach is based on the identification and classification of four types of particular events. Factors corresponding to these events are evaluated through a fuzzy inference system to ensure the coherence of the results. To validate the approach, two case studies were developed with forecasters from a plastic bag manufacturer and a distributor belonging to the food retailing industry. The results show that by structuring and combining the judgements of different forecasters to identify and assess future events, companies can experience a high improvement in demand forecast accuracy. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Keywords: Collaborative forecasting, Demand planning, Fuzzy logic, Judgement, Time series
  • Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgemental adjustment approach

    Références :
    François Marmier et Naoufel Cheikhrouhou. « Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgemental adjustment approach ». In : Production Planning & Control 21.4 (2010). P. 399--412. ISSN : 0953-7287. DOI : 10.1080/09537280903454149.
    Demand forecasting consists of using data of the past demand to obtain an approximation of the future demand. Mathematical approaches can lead to reliable forecasts in deterministic context through extrapolating regular patterns in time-series. However, unpredictable events that do not appear in the historical data can make the forecasts obsolete. Since forecasters have a partial knowledge of the context and of the future events (such as strikes, promotions) with some probability, the idea presented in this work is on structuring the implicit and the explicit knowledge in order to easily and fully integrate it in final forecasts. This article presents a judgemental-based approach in forecasting where mathematical forecasts are considered as a basis and the structured knowledge of the experts is provided to adjust the initial forecasts. This is achieved using the identification and classification of four factors characterising events that could not be considered in the initial forecasts. Validation of the approach is provided with two case studies developed with forecasters from a plastic bag manufacturer and a distributor acting in the food market. The results show that structuring the expert knowledge through the identification of factor-related events leads to high improvements of forecast accuracy.
    Keywords: Demand planning, forecasting, information, judgemental factors, judgemental forecasting, time-series

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